In 2016, Professor Norpoth, a political science professor at Long Island’s Stoney Brook University was ridiculed after he claimed that Donald Trump had an 87% chance of winning the presidential election over Hillary Clinton.
On election night, the NYT predicted that Hillary had a 92% chance of winning the election.
Prof Norpoth has developed a model and it has been correct in every election since 1996. He has now made his prediction for 2020.
He says that President Trump has a 91% chance of winning in November. That’s even worse than his rating for Hillary.
The 2016 election was considered the biggest upset since Truman defeated Dewey. Only Norpoth and the Rasmussen Report predicted a Trump victory of the major polling companies.
Trump was aided by the fact that Hillary was the all-time worst candidate ever for the presidency until her record was eclipsed this year by Joe Biden.
Biden is wisely staying hidden so that the voters won’t hear his daily gaffes but he will be debating the president three times, which will be enough to sink his campaign. Trump will highlight his opponent’s bumbles and stumbles in the debates. He’ll take Biden like Grant took Richmond…before they tore his statue down.
We reported that his 2016 forecast rested on a model that tracks cyclical movements in American presidential elections. It goes back to 1828, when popular voting became widespread and the two-party system took hold. Over nearly two centuries, American presidential elections have exhibited a distinct cycle. This is not the pattern associated with partisan realignments that may last 30 years or so, but a shorter cycle that relates to party control of the White House.
Norpoth made the prediction in March and says he still stands by his election prediction.
Helmut said that he never saw an individual win an election who placed 5th in New Hampshire (Biden). He also said that President Trump did very well in the primaries this year while Biden didn’t do anything until he won South Carolina.