Data analytics research firm Data Orbital is now predicting that President Trump will win Arizona based on 500,000 outstanding votes in counties that President Trump carried. based on that, they are predicting a Trump win in the state. It is unknown if that will affect any of the Senate and House elections.
This is huge. Currently, Trump would need to win Georgia and North Carolina, which he should do as well as Pennsylvania. That would still have Trump needing either Wisconsin or Michigan, both of which had a massive influx of Biden votes after election night. But, if he wins Arizona, he doesn’t need Wisconsin or Michigan.
The counties with outstanding votes left include:
La Paz: 880
Maricopa: At least 250k
Santa Cruz: ~3k
Data Orbital also stated the analysis shows that Trump has the advantage in the remaining votes. Nate Silver, a Democratic pollster agreed:
“Here’s what’s left to count in AZ. At first glance this would seem quite bad for Trump since it’s largely mail ballots *but* mail ballots that arrived late in the process are considerably more R by party registration than the ones that arrived earlier.”
Trump has already cut the gap by quite a bit and is now only behind by a little over three points. The early call was made by Fox News, whose analyst laughed at the possibility that the race was in doubt. I wonder if he is laughing now.
ABC News reported as well Arizona is yet undecided, as of Wednesday afternoon:
President Donald Trump is projected to take the battleground state of Florida, but Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Georgia still hang in the balance as a possibility for former Vice President Joe Biden as of Wednesday afternoon.
Arizona: Arizona’s race has not yet been projected.
Why not? Arizona still has votes being counted, which officials expect to finish counting Wednesday.
We all knew that the Democrats would play fast and loose with mail-in ballots. That should come as no surprise. But doing it as brazenly as they have is a bit of a shocker. In Michigan and Philadelphia, GOP poll watchers have been barred from making sure no cheating is going on.