David Shor, a veteran political operative of the Obama 2012 campaign is now the head of data science at OpenLabs, a progressive nonprofit organization. Shor gave a new analysis of the 2020 election for what the Democrats need to do to keep the Congress, outside of stealing it, but interestingly he believes Donald Trump, especially the Trump era, has been really good for Republicans. I’ve been saying for some time now that there will be a shift in support from traditional demographics for both parties but it will work better for Republicans, and the Democrats have no one to blame but themselves.
Shor’s analysis has changed since November and it’s worth taking some time to hear what he has to say because I believe it’s great news for conservatives, and his analysis proves we were right all along about Trump, the Democrats, and the country as a whole.
What has changed since the November 3 election is now we have available voting history on an individual level from a bunch of states and a lot more precinct data that will blow your mind. Now that some time has passed, surveys have been conducted and things are getting clearer as to what happened in 2020.
One thing we can take away from the 2020 electorate is that the partisan composition for 2020 closely resembled what happened in 2016. Once again the polls were wrong and Trump came out much stronger than the fake news media polls indicated. Because of this, many people thought that turnout models were off. They thought that Trump had inspired more Republican turnout than he did in 2016, the naysayers and folks that stayed home in 2016 came out this time to vote, but that’s not the case.
Follow me here. The electorate for 2020 was slightly more for Democrats than it had been in 2016. So it seems that Trump didn’t exceed the expectations that he would inspire a higher Republican turnout. The Trump campaign learned early on that the 2020 election was not the typical you get your base and your opponent gets his base and both sides fight for the Independents. On the contrary, the Trump campaign realized that there were very few people who were going to vote that were sitting on a fence. Most people had already made up their minds and so the strategy was to get the Republican vote out. But Trump didn’t inspire more Republicans, he exceeded his expectations by persuading more people to come out to vote. This is where it gets good.,
Without getting too heavily into the weeds with data, the Democrats gained about one percentage point among non-college white voters and about 7 percent among white college graduates. However, black support declined by up to 2 percent, Hispanic support for Democrats crashed 8 to 9 percent. We’re still waiting on data from California to see if the same phenomenon happened with Asian voters, but even so, there’s already evidence that Democrats lost about 5 percent of the Asian American vote. These shifts are a big problem for Democrats. They are losing support from groups they traditionally take for granted, and there are some reasons why.
For one thing, racial polarization declined between 2016 and 2018. How is that so? The Democrats and their boot-licking sycophants in the mainstream news media called Trump a racist every day for four years. How could it be that blacks, Hispanics, and Asians no longer drank the Democrat Kool-Aid?
Said another way, a voter’s level of education whether they had a college degree or not became a bigger predictive tool for which party they voted for in the 2020 race than it was in 2016, but more importantly, a voter’s racial identity became less predictive. Wait, what? In other words, the Democrats playing the race card did not pay off as well in 2020 as it has for the last 70 years.
White voters trended toward the Democrats while nonwhite voters trended toward Trump and the Republicans. And the reason for this is pretty simple.
Hispanic support that dropped for Democrats wasn’t just Cuban Americans who have always been more conservative than other Hispanic voting blocks due to the fact that they lived under communism and so they know it sucks. The decline in Hispanic support for Democrats was broad, taking place in California, Arizona, New York, Texas, and other states. Actually, the data shows huge drops of Hispanic support for Democrats throughout the country while larger in some areas and smaller in others, but the change is recognizable everywhere.
The data was looked at to see Clinton voters in 2016 switching over to Trump in 2020. Clinton voters who shared conservative views on crime, policing and security in their communities were far more likely to switch to Trump. And though there were other issues that voters cared about the top one was the issue of crime and public safety.
People want safe neighborhoods, they want their families to be safe, their kids to go to a good school. They don’t want riots in their neighborhoods for an entire summer while the politicians they elected to represent them stand by and ignore the harm being done to their communities. People work hard every day to put food on the table and to make ends meet and then when they have to worry about their car being broken into every night of the week, or someone breaks into their home to get money for drugs, or their kids are beaten up on the way to school, or they’re afraid to talk to the cops about the drug dealers on their corners for fear of reprisals, they look to their community’s leadership for answers. But when their politicians tell them that their answer to the crime problem is they are going to defund the police, remove special crime units, take more cops off the streets, even dismantle whole police departments, when they watch a vice-presidential candidate supporting an organization that funds bailing out rioters so that they can get back to the streets quicker to commit more mayhem, when city politicians remove bail and make laws that prohibit police from arresting people for certain types of crimes, when these things happen you tend to wonder why the hell you keep voting for those leaders?
Donald Trump was the law and order president. He knew that American families want to live in peace. They want to work hard to make a life for themselves and their children. Trump’s instincts have always been right about things like this because he truly is a blue-collar billionaire. Unlike many politicians, Trump hasn’t lost touch with the American people. He created policies directly targeting black and Hispanic communities that helped bring good-paying jobs that changed their lives for the better. Trump’s policies lowered black and Hispanic unemployment rates to the lowest ever recorded. The Trump tax cuts put more money in people’s pockets. Trump helped HBCU’s by putting an increase to grant money on the budget so that the administrators of those Historically black colleges and universities didn’t have to grovel in front of Washington politicians every year. Trump signed the First Step Act that was the first real prison reform in decades. He brought the economy back with common-sense economic policies and he renewed foreign policies to reflect the attitude of America First.
The Democratic Party is no longer the party of the working-class. They are the party of corporations and elitist progressivism hell-bent on pushing the country toward socialism. Now the Republican Party is the party of working-class people and so the Democrats playing the race card every four years won’t work as much as it used to because the proof is in the pudding. Republicans delivered while the Democrats are scaring the living daylights out of everyone.
This is what losing the consent of the governed looks like, and as the Democrats are finding out it has serious practical consequences.
America First wins. It’s really that simple.